Emmanuel Todd: "The Defeat of the West"

Emmanuel Todd: "The Defeat of the West"

 Emmanuel Todd: "The Defeat of the West" 

Emmanuel Todd (born 1951) is a French historian, anthropologist and demographer known for his broad, often provocative interpretations of long-term social processes. Educated at École des hautes études en sciences sociales and University of Cambridge, he became famous very early on with a book in which he predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union based on demographic and educational trends.

1. Several key ideas that mark Todd's work

• social change has deep demographic and family the roots 
• of ideologies are not autonomous, but arise from the structure of family and education 
• religion plays a key role, even when it formally disappears (it leaves "mental remains"). 

In his latest book "The Decline of the West" (La Défaite de l'Occident) Todd presents the thesis that the West is not failing primarily militarily or economically but due to the internal development of opportunities, anthropologically and ideologically. For him, the leading Western and world power, the United States of America, is an example of a society that:

• loses its industrial base (outsourcing, financialization)
• suffers from stagnation of education (especially in STEM fields)
• has growing inequality (oligarchy vs. the rest of society). 

Todd's key thesis is that the disintegration of the Protestant ethic led to a loss of moral and social cohesion. He believes that the former American success was linked to:

• Protestant discipline
• high literacy
• a more egalitarian society

After the weakening of religion, according to Todd:

• "nihilistic liberalism" arises
• the elite separates from the rest of society
• ideology becomes separated from reality (e.g. in foreign policy).

Such processes lead to an unfavorable social structure characterized by a small number of oligarchs,around 10-15% of the "upper middle class" (managers, experts), while the remaining majority of the population is faced with a decline in security and standards.

As for the leading Western European countries -the United Kingdom, France and Germany - according to Todd, they are undergoing similar processes such as deindustrialization (moving production to Asia) and the dominance of the financial sector.

The political consequences of such processes lead to the weakening of nation states, the growth of distrust in democracy and the rise of populism

Todd particularly criticizes the loss of sovereignty in favor of global structures and ideological homogenization of political elites. 

Unlike classical economists, Todd interprets deindustrialization with cultural-demographic causessuch as:

• decline in technical education → weaker industrial base
• ideology of “post-industrial society” → neglect of production
• globalization → short-term profit for elites, long-term loss for society. 

Thus, according to Todd, deindustrialization is not only an economic necessity, but also an ideological choice of the elite.

One of Todd's most controversial the idea is that liberal democracy in Western countries grew out of Protestantism. When Protestantism weakens:

• the emphasis on responsibility and work
• disappears social trust
• weakens, there is a fragmentation of society

Todd claims that today's West is formally secular, but in fact it is in the stage of "post-religious vacuum". As a result:

• ideologies become unstable
• democracy loses content and becomes procedural
• elites move away from of nations 

Todd views family structures as the foundation of civilizations,which isperhaps the most important part of his theory. He distinguishes between family types (simplified):

1. Nuclear family (e.g. Anglo-American world)

• children leave their parents early 
• emphasis on individualism
  ➡️ leads to liberalism and capitalism 

2. Authoritarian family (e.g. Germany, Japan)

• strong hierarchy
  ➡️ favors disciplined, organized societies 

3. Egalitarian family (e.g. France)

• equality among children
  ➡️ leads to egalitarian ideologies 

4. Communitarian families (e.g. Russia, China)

• collectivism
  ➡️ favors authoritarian or collectivist systems

Todd's key idea is that the way people grow up in a family shapes their perception of:

• authority
• equality
• freedom

And in the long run:
➡️ affects political systems and history.

Todd's critics believe that he oversimplifies complex processes, placing too much emphasis on the family and neglecting technology and market forces. But its strengths are generally seen as linking demography, culture and politics, thus offering a "long-term view" often lacking in economists 

It can be said that Todd sees the West not as a civilization that is collapsing because of external enemies, but because of:

• internal erosion of social structures 
• loss of religious and moral foundations
• wrong economic and ideological choices elite,

His most radical message is that the crisis of the West is anthropological, not just economic or political.

1. Todd's interpretation of the war between Russia and Ukraine

Many find his interpretation of the Russian-Ukrainian war intriguing. reorganizationand not only as a regional conflict. In his interpretation, it is a conflict that exposes the weaknesses of the West and the end of its ideological dominance. Todd rejects the simplistic explanation of "aggression without a cause" and emphasizes a combination of factors such as: 1) geopolitical expansion of the West (Eastward expansion of NATO, Todd claims that the West underestimated Russia's security perceptions; 2) ideological conflict (the West promotes liberal universalism, Russia is positioned as a sovereign, civilizational alternative model). For Todd, therefore, the war is not only territorial but also ideological; 3). the internal crisis of the West (according to him, the war is also the result of the need of the West, especially the USA, to assert its global dominance and compensate for internal weaknesses /economic, social/).

Todd claims that the Western powers have made several serious miscalculations. In the first place, he sees underestimation of Russia (expectation of rapid economic collapse, belief that Russia is "weak" and dependent). It has been shown that Russia has a resilient economy, and that it can maintain its industrial and military new production. In the second place, he sees Western overestimation of his own powerthrough faith in the effectiveness of sanctions and belief in global support for the West. Todd states that the West "lived in the illusion of its own hegemony". As the third mistake of the West, Todd sees its wrong image of the global worldthrough the assumption that it will follow the Western line, which did not happen.

"Global South" (eg India, Brazil, South Africa) according to Todd has its own logic, which manifests itself through: 1) historical distrust of the West (colonial past, perception of double standards); 2. economic interests (dependence on Russian energy and resources, desire for a multipolar world); 3. ideological autonomy (rejection of the Western "moral imperative", greater emphasis on sovereignty). Todd concludes that the world is no longer unipolar.

Todd believes that the perception of “The West vs the Rest”(the West versus “the rest of the world”) is not only a political construction, but a result: 1. demographic realities (the West makes up a relatively small part of the world's population, the rest of the world dominates demographically; 2. different value systems (the West → individualism, liberalism; the rest of the world → often collectivism, sovereignty); 3. economic changes (the growth of Asia, especially China; the decline of the West's industrial base. Todd claims that the war showed that the West is no longer "the center of the world".

However, Todd's deeper interpretation leads us to his the most intriguing theses: the war revealed the crisis of Western ideology.He argues that:

• The West no longer produces universally convincing ideas
• The rest of the world does not accept Western dominance as legitimate.

Many analysts consider Todd's interpretation to be controversialbecause it underestimates Russian responsibility. overestimates the coherence of the "Global South" and simplifies the complex motives of states. In this regard, it can be concluded that, according to Todd, the war in Ukraine is not an isolated event, but a turning point in global history, which shows: the end of Western hegemony, the emergence of a multipolar world, and a deep internal crisis of the West. 2.1 Emmanuel Todd uses war in Gaza as an illustration of what he calls "American nihilism", but he does not mean only the United States of America as a country, but the broader ideological framework of the West.

In a few summarized points, his logic goes like this:

• Double standards: Todd claims that the West simultaneously talks about human rights and democracy, but in Gaza it tolerates or justifies actions that are contrary to these principles. This, according to him, shows the loss of real normative
• Loss of universalism: liberal values no longer act as universal, but selective - they apply to "their own", but not to others. This is, for Todd, a sign that the ideology has lost its internal coherence.
• "Nihilism" as a void of values (which he associates with the collapse of the Protestant ethic) remains, according to him, a system formally talks about values, but cannot consistently implement them.
• Geopolitical cynicism: support for allies regardless of consequences is seen as evidence that interest prevails over principles - which Todd interprets as a form of nihilism, i.e. the absence of a real normative anchor ijat-biblos.hr/media/img/blog/D9GKNnKhe_profimedia-0951744005.jpg">

  It is important to add that this is one interpretation: critics claim that Todd simplifies a complex conflict and ignores security, historical and political dimensions, as well as different attitudes within the West itself.

  1. Racism, populism and Trump in Todd's interpretation

  Emmanuel Todd in The Defeat of the West sees the appearance of racism and populism in the United States not as a sudden "return of the past", but as a symptom of deep social disintegration.

  • Racism: according to Todd, it is not a primary cause, but a secondary reaction of a society that is losing economic stability and identity security. As the industrial base and middle class disappear, part of the population seeks explanations and culprits - often in ethnic or cultural differences.
  • Populism: he sees it as a rebellion against the elite, but also as a sign that the traditional political system no longer succeeds in representing the majority of the population.

  Todd's view of the American president is as follows:

  • Trump is not the cause of the crisis, but its product
  • (2017-2021) sees it as a reaction to the collapse of industrial America
  • Trump's rhetoric and style reflect the decline of political culture, but also the authentic dissatisfaction of part of society.

  Thus, according to Todd, Trump is the political expression of "America that is losing" - the industrial regions, the lower and part of the middle class. He came to power for the second time through a combination of factors such as are: deindustrialization; disappearance of a stable middle class; disintegration of the Protestant ethic. As a result of all this, voters are turning to an "unconventional" leader who promises a break with the existing system:

• a symptom of the crisis of liberal democracy. the system no longer works for a large part of the population.

Final Thoughts on “The Defeat of the West”

“The Defeat of the West” is not a book about one war or one policy, but about the long-term disintegration of the West's social foundations. Todd reminds us that economics, ideology and politics cannot survive without deeper cultural and demographic structures. Whether we agree with him or not, his analysis forces the reader to question what is often taken for granted – the strength, stability and universality of the Western model. The book is worth reading not because it provides definitive answers, but because it raises uncomfortable but important questions about the direction of the modern world.Todd is most useful when read not as a prophet but as a provocative diagnostician. His greatest value is not that he is always right, but that he connects disciplines that rarely connect and forces the reader to think outside the dominant narrative.

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